The bird flu crisis in the United States appears to be entering a new and troubling phase, with a surge in avian influenza cases among wild birds and poultry, and the first confirmed U.S. case of a new strain, H5N9, on a California duck farm.
While experts stress that these developments do not necessarily increase the risk of a human pandemic, they could cause further economic damage to farmers, worsen egg shortages, and expose weaknesses in government disease surveillance efforts.
Rising Cases and Growing Concerns
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed 81 cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds across 24 states between December 29 and January 17. These cases highlight how wild birds can carry and spread the virus without showing symptoms, potentially transmitting it to commercial poultry flocks.
In response, thousands of wild geese and commercial poultry flocks have been culled in states like Pennsylvania and New York to prevent further spread.
“If you look at what’s happened in the last eight weeks, the number of poultry operations that have gone down—and more recently, the duck operations—is absolutely stunning,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
The outbreak is further complicated by changing migratory patterns. Warmer winters in northern states mean that certain wild birds are staying put rather than migrating south, increasing exposure to domestic poultry.
New H5N9 Strain Raises Questions
A particularly concerning development is the detection of H5N9, a new strain of bird flu, on a California duck farm that had previously battled the H5N1 virus last fall.
The discovery of this new strain suggests “reassortment”—a process where two or more flu viruses infect the same animal and swap genetic material. Ducks, which often carry flu viruses without becoming seriously ill, serve as ideal hosts for this process.
While H5N9 is not currently believed to be more dangerous to humans than H5N1, its emergence underscores concerns about the potential evolution of the virus into a strain that could more easily infect people.
Richard Webby, director of the World Health Organization’s Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza, warned that a reassortment between bird flu and human flu could create a virus capable of spreading more easily among humans.
So far, 113 poultry flocks have been infected in the past month, impacting 19 million birds, according to the USDA. The virus has also been detected in 943 dairy herds, mostly in California.
Government Response and Concerns Over Communication Freeze
The Biden administration has yet to publicly outline its strategy for addressing the worsening outbreak. Compounding concerns is a pause on most federal health agency communications, including the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a key public health resource.
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has not responded to inquiries about the government’s next steps. Meanwhile, HHS Secretary-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pledged during confirmation hearings to “devote appropriate resources to preventing pandemics”, but past statements suggesting a need to “give infectious disease research a break” have drawn scrutiny from lawmakers.
The freeze on public health communications has already delayed the publication of two important studies on bird flu—one examining whether veterinarians treating cattle may have unknowingly been infected, and another investigating possible transmission between infected humans and domestic cats.
The lack of transparency has alarmed public health experts, who argue that timely information is critical for monitoring and containing the virus.
“This idea that science cannot continue until there’s a political lens over it is unprecedented,” said Anne Schuchat, former principal deputy director at the CDC.
Others have warned that slowing the flow of information could hinder the response to the outbreak.
“Getting CDC up and running at full speed is going to be essential to keep track of avian influenza,” said Patrick Jackson, an infectious diseases expert at UVA Health.
What Comes Next?
The bird flu crisis is likely to intensify in the coming weeks, with the virus continuing to spread among wild birds, poultry, and possibly livestock. The emergence of the H5N9 strain adds a new layer of uncertainty, as scientists monitor its behavior and potential risks to human health.
With millions of birds already affected, farmers face significant economic losses, and consumers may see egg and poultry shortages worsen. Public health officials are urging the federal government to act quickly, as delays in communication and policy decisions could make containment efforts more challenging.
For now, the world is watching closely as the avian flu crisis unfolds, hoping to prevent a larger outbreak that could have even more devastating consequences.
